The Market Isn’t Going To Crash!
Published on July 6, 2021
Here are three reasons why the market won’t crash but could slow down soon.
In early April, Google reported that the question, “When is the housing market going to crash?” had spiked 2,450% within 30 days. “Why is the market so hot?” searches had doubled in just a week, and “How much over asking price should we offer on a home in 2021?” jumped 350% in that same week. So is the housing market headed for a crash this summer? Here are three reasons why we don’t think so:
1. Qualified buyers. One of the main differences between 2008 (when the market crashed) and the condition of the current market is loan standards. Foreclosure filings were at a 15-year low in February of 2020 before the pandemic and have continued to decrease.
2. Down payments. The average down payment in 2007 was 9%, but the typical current down payment is 15.9%. 45% of first-time homebuyers financed 100% of their home in 2007, while just 17% did so in 2020.
3. Adjustable-rate mortgages. In 2007, 15% of all mortgages were adjustable or fixed then adjustable. In 2020, only 4% were adjustable.
“We can expect the Coachella Valley housing market to remain strong into the foreseeable future.”
With all this in mind, we think there are a couple of factors that could slow the current market:
- An interest rate increase. A significant increase in interest rates that would get us over that 4% or 5% mark could impact the market, but it just doesn’t seem like the Fed has plans for this anytime soon.
- Foreclosures. As of March, about 70% of all homeowners still in forbearance are not making any payments. The worst-case scenario is that about 2.9% of all mortgage borrowers could end up in delinquency. The serious delinquency rate could go from 0.9% to 3.8%. That’s still much lower than the 6.3% rate seen in 2010, but it would slow the market.
The good news is that once these forbearance programs start to wind down, it seems that with low interest rates and low inventory, we can expect the Coachella Valley housing market to remain strong into the foreseeable future. Please reach out to the agent on our team you’ve been working with if you have any questions.
For more information on how the Coachella Valley Market has skyrocketed recently visit the link below:
Published on May 15, 2021
2021 Coachella Valley Home Prices in April 2021 Continue a Rising Trend
There is no doubt, home prices are swelling. Market-watchers are seeing a nearly unprecedented surge in home prices. This surge is exemplified by the median sale price in the Coachella Valley increasing in April to a massive $559,750, up from $440,000 last April. Valleywide, homes are selling in an average of 34 days, and the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is near a record low. Though things currently feel a bit hectic, the market will adjust to the natural ebb and flow of typical economic cycles.
Prices aren’t expected to fall anytime soon, and years of under-building means that the country is facing a serious housing shortage. Total home supply shrunk 28.2% from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. Growing demand and diminished supply make a perfect combination for escalating prices.
Now more than ever, the market is very lopsided in favor of sellers. For example, our team alone has a backlog of vetted and pre-qualified buyers looking for a home in a Del Webb 55+ community. Here is a comprehensive breakdown of our buyers who are currently searching for a home in Del Webb Rancho Mirage, Sun City Palm Desert or Sun City Shadow Hills:
JELMBERG TEAM’S BUYERS FOR HOMES IN A DEL WEBB COMMUNITY:
|Under 1,500 SQFT||1,500 – 2,000 SQFT||2,000 – 2,500 SQFT||Over 2,500 SQFT|
However, sellers should be cautious about pricing their homes too high because buyers still won’t pay for a property that’s majorly overpriced.
So what should you do when you receive multiple offers for your property?
Here are the three factors you should consider when comparing offers:
- Payment Method. Cash is king, and paying in cash allows buyers to waive the appraisal, which is great for sellers. However, if you’re confident in the buyer’s lender and their mortgage approval, there’s not much risk in taking an offer from a buyer with a loan. Also remember that local lenders are often more accessible on nights and weekends, which can be crucial in this fast-paced market.
- Contingencies. These days, sellers are in the position to ask for as few contingencies as possible. Many buyers are waiving home inspections right now and are finding ways to waive home appraisal contingencies.
- Compare apples to apples. The best way to compare offers is to lay them side by side. A good strategy is to create a spreadsheet with all the essential information to make comparisons simple.
Ultimately, it’s an excellent time to be a seller as long as you have an experienced real estate agent to guide you through today’s sometimes chaotic market.
If you’d like to speak to me about what you can net from the sale of your home, or any other real estate matter, please call me at 760-FOR-SALE.
Published on March 25, 2021
UPDATE: Spring home sales haven’t let up
In 2021 there has been a flurry of change in national news and the macroeconomic front. Despite these changes, the housing market seems to have not missed a step in keeping pace with the unprecedented sales numbers from the end of 2020.
Locally, the median sale price ended 2020 at $520K in the valley, up 22% YoY (Year over Year) and the number of units sold in 2020 was up 13% (YoY), with the biggest increases in units sold above the $600K price point.
Inventory remains at historic lows starting 2021 with over 50% less inventory than January of 2020, with the inventory retraction essentially even across price ranges.
The increase in units sold and drastic decrease in available inventory has created a month of sales ratio at 1.4 months (historically low levels), and as you might expect, multiple offer situations and bidding wars. As of December 2020, 1 in 5 homes were selling above list price.
While the huge price increases and multiple offer situations are certainly prominent aspects of our current market, the interesting story is the decrease in new listings (down 8% YoY in 2020), especially in the lower price points.
Desert Hot Springs, Coachella, Cathedral City
Over 25% decrease in new listings.
Indio, Bermuda Dunes
Over 10% decrease in new listings.
Palm Desert, La Quinta, Palm Springs, Indian Wells, Rancho Mirage
Under 4% decrease in new listings.
Is the decrease in new listings due to potential sellers not wanting unnecessary exposure to COVID? Hard to tell, but this could be the case. As more residents of the Coachella Valley have received their vaccine, and we move closer to a more normal way of life, we could see an uptick in the number of new listings.
So, what can you do as a homeowner or buyer to fully leverage this crazy-hot market?
The truth is if you want into this market you need to find a professional well versed in how to navigate it. At The Jelmberg Team, we understand this market and have the processes in place to maximize our clients’ interests and do it safely.
Though some buyers may be deterred by interest rates ratcheting up a bit, many more are rushing to lock in affordable monthly payments while they still can. However, actually finding and getting an offer accepted has never been more challenging than right now in the Coachella Valley. Lean on an experienced real estate agent to make the best offer for you and be prepared to offer over list price.
For sellers, the number of listings could increase markedly over the next few months. If you have thought about selling your home, now may be the best time to beat a potential influx of homes on the market and maximize your net proceeds.
If you’ve even been entertaining the idea of selling your home this year, I invite you to follow the link below to instantly calculate your home’s value in today’s market based on recent Coachella Valley sales:
The Jelmberg Team was founded on the principle of being leaders and innovators in our industry by pioneering ways to use technology to create seamless experiences for both buyers and sellers. This continuous endeavor has prepared us for this time; our systems, structure, services, and marketing techniques were built to help our clients and our agents thrive in this virtual environment. We have closed over $95 million in sales in the last 8 months alone.
If you have any questions about real estate, please reach out to your Jelmberg Team Agent.
Published on July 1, 2020
UPDATE: There’s an unexpected outcome of the pandemic shutdown
Home prices are surging right now in the Coachella Valley.
In January 2020, it looked like we were in for a solid year. Inventory had been steadily decreasing in the Coachella Valley for several years, while home prices have seen 75% – 200% appreciation (depending on what city you live in) since the lows of 2011.
The Jelmberg Team had 55 homes closed or in escrow during the first two and a half months of the year ($20.6MM in volume). The market was strong.
We obviously hit some bumps in the road in the middle of March, but the market seems to have weathered the storm and unexpectedly come out the other side stronger. Nationally, in the month of April, more than 41% of homes on the market faced a bidding war, and home prices rose 7.4% year-over-year to reach a new record high. Locally, the valley has seen a 2.3% price increase year over year (as of the end of May) and we will likely continue to see home values appreciate for the foreseeable future. Our team has experienced a flurry of activity in the month of June with 21 sides ($9.3MM) in escrow since June 1.
What explains such an active market in the time of a pandemic? There are three reasons:
First, buyers are rushing back into the market. Social distancing restrictions are loosening. Folks who were hoping to buy a new home during the spring peak season can finally do so.
Also, due to quarantine, some people are re-evaluating their current homes more carefully and possibly looking to buy a home with more space.
Second, we currently have record-low mortgage rates. For homebuyers, this makes it a particularly attractive time to get into the market.
Third, there is very little inventory. Nationally, the number of homes on the market dropped by almost 20% in April, making this the lowest April inventory of homes for sale on record. Locally, inventory is still down 20% from this time a year ago, while average days on market have decreased 10 days to 54. The discount rate is also down to 2%. One of the most telling stats to keep an eye on is the absorption rate which has dropped to 3.7. This represents the months of inventory the market currently has (less than 6 months of inventory indicates a seller’s market).
So there you have it: tremendous demand for homes and very limited supply. The upshot is that we will continue to see home prices rise.
What does this mean for you?
Simply put, if you’re looking to sell your home, it’s a great time to do so. If you were to list your home in the current market, and price it correctly, you could sell it quickly and for top dollar.
In case you’re curious how much your home is worth in the current hot market, take a look at the following home value calculator, which is based on recent Coachella Valley sales or call the agent you are working with for a more accurate home evaluation:
If you’re looking to buy a home, the good news is that several beautiful homes just came on the market. If you’d like to see them, take a look at this complete listing of valley homes for sale:
Finally, if you have any questions, whether you’re thinking of buying or selling, give the agent you are working with a call. Market conditions are changing very quickly these days. We have our finger on the pulse of the Coachella Valley market, and our team is here to help.
March 28, 2020
UPDATE: Real Estate is an Essential Service
On Friday, March 28, 2020, California Gov. Gavin Newsom Announced that real estate inspections and showing are an essential service. This allows for buyers in-person showing/inspection of homes by the State of California during the stay at home order. While this is great news for both home buyers and home sellers, at the Jelmberg Team we will only do in-person showings only if necessary, and if a showing is deemed necessary, we will take every precaution possible to ensure a safe and clean showing.
For more details on this announcement visit this link to the California Association of Realtors (CAR) notice on this change:
How Has COVID-19 / Coronavirus Affected Real Estate in the Coachella Valley?
March 23, 2020
As the world nervously watches the spread of COVID-19 (or Coronavirus), the pandemic has begun prompting responses from every industry, and nearly every level of organization in the country. Professional sporting events, concerts, and even political campaigning have been impacted. How then, has COVID-19 affected the real estate market, especially as we enter what was primed to be an especially hot spring for real estate?
Lawrence Yu, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, had anticipated about 5.5 million sales of previously owned homes this year (an increase from 2019 and 2018).
That’s because borrowing costs had plunged to lows not seen since 2012/2013 (e.g., an average interest rate of 3.29% on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage) and the job market was strong. Obviously, though, no one could have foreseen a virus disrupting market conditions at the start of 2020.
But just how disruptive has it been so far?
Thursday, March 19th, evening Governor Newsom and the State Public Health Officer issued Executive Order N-33-20 requiring all Californians to stay home except as needed to maintain continuity of operations in 16 infrastructure sectors. UPDATE – Real estate has now been deemed an essential business as of March 28, 2020 allowing for real estate agents to do limited face to face meetings. For more details on this announcement visit this link to the California Association of Realtors (CAR) notice on this change: https://www.car.org/en/aboutus/mediacenter/news/essentialservice?src=redalert or see update above.
There is still a need to buy and sell homes. Even the day prior to the new mandate, our listings were being shown regularly, we had two agents showing/video touring property (prior to the Governor’s stay home order) and we opened a new escrow. We had a home go into escrow last weekend, and we have 4 new listings going active in the next couple of days. Though the volume of buyers we would expect to see this time of year is obviously significantly lower, there are still buyers out there that have a legitimate need for a home.
We did see 2-3 escrows cancel initially due to the state of the nation, but we have 22 other current escrows that are solid. The biggest issues we are working with right now are logistical in nature due to the US/Canadian border being shut down. Currently, all the functions needed to get a home closed are available to us. Escrow, title, and the recorder’s office remain open.
The message we have for our clients right now is there are still buyers with need and the conditions that make for a fantastic market for both buyers and sellers still exist—crazy low rates and sellers with lots of equity in their homes (home values have increased for 9 years straight). Though we will likely see the US economy as a whole take a hit, a spike in unemployment, a short term drop in sales and sale prices, the real estate market will likely rebound quickly as it will be considered one of the safer investments during this time.
Ultimately, you have to determine what’s right for you as a home buyer or home seller. If you have a need to purchase or sell a home, we’d be happy to offer you a virtual consultation in lieu of meeting in person. We can discuss your specific needs in detail and show you how we are adapting our marketing to get the most exposure for our sellers at this time. Or we can provide you with a virtual tour, or live video walk through of homes you may be interested in.
Otherwise, please stay home and take care of yourself and your family. Reach out to us if you have questions and we will continue to provide you with the most up-to-date information possible, with hyper-local context that may be lost in the national media coverage.
We will get through this!
Lastly, it’s important that we listen to the medical professionals who are bearing the brunt of this, working hard to treat the infected, and developing a vaccine. We must all do our part to slow the progression. Hopefully, by now, you’ve heard these protocols, but it never hurts to reiterate them:
- Wash your hands with soap for at least 20 seconds, especially after having been in a public space or after coughing, sneezing, or blowing your nose.
- If COVID-19 is active in your area, put over 6 feet of distance between yourself and other people.
- Avoid public areas unless absolutely necessary, especially if you are over 65 and/or at a higher risk of getting sick.
- Stay at home if you’re sick and reach out to your primary physician.
– Everyone at the Jelmberg Team.
Visit this page often to see the change in the Coachella Valley real estate trends.
SEE HISTORICAL / PREVIOUS MONTHS POST BELOW:
Published on: March 1, 2020
The Real Estate Market In The Coachella Valley Is Heating Up!
The Coachella Valley real estate market is trending up! Over the 2019 and early 2020 there has been significant improvements to loan limits, interest rates and the economy making for the perfect storm for housing prices to increase. However, the now distant memory of the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 still causes anxiety for some looking to enter the real estate market again. Despite this seemingly prudent fear, this time a seems to be different for a number of reasons. Adding to this optimism for the Coachella Valley’s real estate market is the reduction in housing starts state-wide and the allure of the Desert’s competitive value for home buyers.
This Time Americans Have Less Debt
More importantly, unlike the previous housing boom, the personal household debt for most Americans is much lower. Despite attention grabbing headlines like “Household Debt Tops $14 Trillion,” however, when adjusting for inflation household debt is much lower than in 2008. According to Market Watch, Inc. personal debt ratios are much healthier than the dark days of 2008 and 2009 during the Great Recession. Adjusting for inflation, since the peak of 2008 debt levels are down nearly 19% and since bottoming out nearly seven years ago real per capita debts are up just 4.5%.
Also, the percent of disposable income needed to service household debt is the lowest since the 1970s and foreclosures are the lowest on record. According to the Federal Reserve, it takes an average of 9.9% of disposable income to service debts, down 13.2% since 2008. Taking into account the personal debt levels and the ability of consumers to pay off debt, at this point, household debt seems to be an unlikely trigger for another recession and Americans should be more capable of weathering an economic slow down.
Interest Rates, Loan Limits and a Roaring Economy
that 2020 could be a great year for real estate. First on the list was the economy. Bloomberg Economics forecasted that the U.S. economy will grow 2% in 2020 as the record-length expansion turns 11 years old in June. Real incomes are rising, and unemployment is at a 50-year low. Also, the stock market finished 2019 at all time highs with the DOW Jones Industrial Average hitting 28,462 and the S&P 500 reaching 3,230 in December of 2019.*
Secondly, interest rates are almost at 2012 lows. Interest rates decreased to well under 4% in the 4th quarter of 2019, almost reaching 2012 levels, with no indications of rate increases in the near future.
Lastly, The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHA) announced in November that it is raising the conforming loan limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to more than $510,000 in most
Couple the household debt statistics with the strength of the U.S. economy, record low interest rate and an increase on FHA loans and the result is stellar great news for both buyers and sellers!
The Coachella Valley’s Value to Buyers
In January of 2020 the median sale price of a home in Los Angeles has plateaued at the whopping $689,950. Comparing this to the Coachella Valley with a median home price at around $375,000 the opportunity for Angelino’s seems apparent! This discrepancy in prices along with Baby Boomers looking more than ever to retire makes the Desert a very attractive option for buyers from LA and other high priced cities in California.
This boon in the comparative value for homes in the Desert has our team of real estate professionals working to capacity. Now consider in addition to value the Desert offers buyers, the roaring economy, loan limits increases, reasonable household debt levels, a shortage in housing in California makes the outlook for the Coachella Valley residential resales seems unstoppable in 2020.
*correction in stock market figures from previous market update on February 1, 2020
3 Reasons to Expect a Hot Real Estate Market in 2020
Published on: February 1, 2020
The Coachella Valley Real Estate Market has been strong in 2019 and we expect this trend to continue into 2020. Despite the looming election in 2020 we feel that there is strong evidence that this will have a marginal effect on real estate trends in the Coachella Valley market.
Here we go, the start of another election year. Every four years there can tend to be a sense of uneasiness leading up to the presidential election. Rightfully so as the policy gaps between the two major parties seems to be at their greatest in recent memory. By now, the country has a pretty good understanding of what it can expect from our president, while the candidates that hope to unseat him are running with far different ideas of how the country should be lead. Regardless of your party affiliation, there is plenty of opportunity to allow election anxiety to creep in.
Couple the election year with the many other important topics that will likely affect us this coming year (from a China trade deal, and Brexit, to our foreign policy with North Korea and Iran), and it’s understandable how the uncertainty could potentially create some tension and doubt about making any major decisions in the near future.
How will the upcoming presidential election affect the real estate market? Opinions differ among real estate professionals, but we feel very comfortable that 2020 will be another fantastic year for residential real estate sales in the Coachella Valley. Here are the three reasons why:
The extra money in buyers accounts, teamed with interest rates near record lows and a conforming loan limit increase creates a perfect storm for buyers and sellers. Buyers should feel more comfortable to make a purchase and are able to afford homes at a higher price point, while sellers should be looking for inventory to creep down and home prices to inch up as more buyers enter the market. The stage is set for a very active year in residential real estate in the Coachella Valley cities.
Coachella Valley Real Estate Market Graphs and Stats:
The statistics and graphs below outline the Coachella Valley Market performance over the past 15 plus years.
The graph below shows the healthy growth in median sale price and a steady number of homes sold each year since 2011.
Since 2006 the Coachella Valley has seen steady gains in median sale price. The graph below shows this steady growth.
The Jelmberg Team finished 2019 with $74 million in sales, leading the entire Coachella Valley in closed units (194). This is a record for our team in both volume and transactions. We expect 2020 to be an outstanding year for the community and our team.
The Jelmberg Real Estate Team are Your Local Experts!
The Jelmberg Team has complied this data for the residents and prospective buyers or renters in the Coachella Valley. If you would like assistance in determining the market value or a listing price for your home please contact a Jelmberg Team real estate agent – here. If you are looking to purchase a Coachella Valley home for sale our expert agents have the local knowledge needed to find you the perfect home to fit any lifestyle or need.
Published on October 2, 2019
Coachella Valley & National Real Estate Market Update
Changes in the MLS in the Coachella Valley
There were big changes for Realtor’s in the Desert this summer. Both the Desert Area and Palm Springs Associations of Realtors have changed their MLS provider to FLEXMLS. Hopefully you haven’t noticed this change in the way you search property values or your home search.
Initially, the transition created some problems with how listings were being syndicated across the web. Our marketing team has been working diligently with all parties involved to insure jelmbergteam.com has the most accurate listing information in the Coachella Valley. Our team and our clients are so thankful for their efforts and are reaping the benefits.
Despite these changes in the MLS we wanted to highlight some interesting trends nationally and show how these trends may have contributed to the sky-rocketing numbers for the Jelmberg Team during the summer of 2019.
National Real Estate Trends in 2019
September 3rd CoreLogic®, a leading global property information and analytics provider, released their CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for July 2019, which shows home prices rose both year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by 3.6% from June 2018. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 0.5% in July 2019.
Home prices continue to increase on an annual basis with the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicating annual price growth will increase by 5.4% by July 2020. On a month-over-month basis, the forecast calls for home prices to increase by 0.4% from July 2019 to August 2019. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
The Jelmberg Team had its best summer ever! Our sales volume (from May to August) grew over 40% to approx. $20.8MM (representing 28 buyers and 32 sellers). Our top four months in sales volume this year are March ($10.25MM), January ($6.8MM) and ……. wait for it… June ($6.4MM) & July ($6.3MM). We also had no shortage of sellers, as the team listed 39 homes during this time (also an all-time record for us).
We have noticed over the last 3 years that the traditional seasonality the market has experienced is gradually having less influence on home sales. We anticipate this trend to continue, and believe the strong sales numbers in June, July and August to continue into the 3rd quarter of 2019.